Basketball and gambling have more in common than you may think. So as to be successful at pursuit, it helps to have an established system. In the case of basketball, having a reliable offensive strategy that you’re able to roll out every game irrespective of the matchup gives you a leg-up. Think Mike D’Antoni’s free-flowing space-and-pace attack or Jerry Sloan’s nearly unbeatable pick-and-roll offense in the 1980s and 90s.
If it comes to betting, you can acquire the exact same sort of benefit by having a tightly defined set of rules which you can use to each and every match regardless of who is on the court.
Luckily, you don’t have to produce your own betting system from scratch. There are already several established strategies that you can try on for size when you lay down wagers on your favorite teams, and there is no rule against pilfering in the playbooks of individuals who arrived before you. We’ve included a number of the most reliable systems and money-management approaches below, along with insights about the best way best to use them. When coupled with an understanding of the game, these systems might help turn rookie betters into all-stars.
The High Totals System
Few approaches are easier to learn and apply in relation to the Top Totals System created by Allen Moody, a sports-betting professional and the author of Getting a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. Moody found that sportsbooks often underestimate game levels for NBA non-conference games, and began taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It is a simple approach, but it paid off as he had been right 63.5% of time for all games meeting that criteria from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Those sorts of games have been rarities a decade ago, but they’re becoming more common now as groups push the pace and drain more three-pointers. Back in 2004-05, NBA teams scored an average of 97.2 points each game. That number jumped to 100.0 in 2008-09 and climbed all the way to 105.6 in 2016-17. Sportsbooks have become savvy to this tendency, but there is still value to be found by taking the over in games with especially high total-point projections.

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