BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

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30.08.2019
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31.08.2019

BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first seat into it a couple weeks back and I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k decoration, then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really aren’t any cash game guards this week for me personally but I moved with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the ground she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the fight and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I really don’t understand how large her ceiling is in cash games it doesn’t really matter too much because we don’t need to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d anticipate about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a great deal of scrambles and the grappling improvements really accumulate. I expect this to be a very fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find no less than 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a triumph. The lowest he has ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point reduction to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP play here and if he wins I would expect near 100 DK points.
Underdog play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle that I hope to remain standing, I have quite a lot of curiosity in this struggle. I believe it will be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of this week, so that I think that a KO from either guy would have a good opportunity to set them on the optimal lineup. I enjoy it more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I anticipate Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in more than half my lineups, but that I will probably have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a much better GPP fight than it’s for money games, but I believe dos Santos is in play for cash since he is an underdog and that I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I will have a good amount of vulnerability to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at the wages and I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, he then likely scores mid 70’s and at his cost that won’t win anyone a GPP. I don’t think he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he uses his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take that risk with my cash. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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