This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Philly on large ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests and that I look forward to chasing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $30 decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
While I stack a struggle in money games I want a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or even more, but I’ll take 100-point floor with all the guaranteed win. With Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his struggles even total over 200 DK points. He is the best design for accruing DraftKings points and should we use Edson too, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that day. This is how I will be starting my money lineup and I will figure out the rest from there. I shall take the loss because we do not need 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid exactly the same at a 10-man double-up, therefore I’m not shooting first and I would rather play with it safer with my cash lineups.
GPP drama of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola ought to be a great play if he shoots for takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he’s 36 takedowns. That is precisely what we need on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he is able to rack up enough to score 100+ points. If he can score over 100 DK points again here at $8.2k he is for sure going to acquire a person $30k. I do expect him to be chalky this week, but he’s a lot of scoring possible I’d like to fade the chalk. I will probably be in accord with the area on ownership with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog play of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I enjoy Waterson here since she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this particular fight. I think she can find a number of she may be able to lock a submission if that’s the case. That’s her ceiling in this struggle, but I like her more for money games because of her floor. I really don’t see KK finishing Waterson, therefore I think we get three complete rounds of scoring from her. In a loss she could place up 30-40 DK points and in cash games which is fine. I’ll use her in GPPs also, but I do not believe she submits KK. I would guess she puts up around ~80 DK points in a decision win when she is able to get the success.
Fade of the week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week in GPPs however Mazo is the one I am interested in the very least. I think the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary would be by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that’s quite likely at all and I think a decision win is likely for her. I really don’t see her heading for almost any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, so that I don’t see the way she scores tremendously in a decision triumph. I have zero lineups with Mazo this week and if I had been making 100 lineups I would still likely full fade . Hopefully it doesn’t burn me, however, she is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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